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We use Discounted Cash Flow Model (DCF) to calculate intrinsic value of the company. Since we are using past 10 years figures to predict the future, here are some assumptions used in DCF:
- Company exhibits a growth trend
- Trend is predictable and stable
- Trend is expected to continue (No changes in industry)
With these assumptions, we are able to determine a reasonable expected future value for the company, and discount that to the present to estimate a value. When any of these assumptions are broken, the figures generated would not realize.
Cyclical industries, such as construction, shipyard and Oil & Gas have huge swings in revenue and cash flow, and are not suitable candidates of DCF.
The DCF figure we use is an average of growth and no growth DCF.
Ultimately DCF is an estimation, one has to apply their judgement and foresight to predict if the value will realize.